The UEFA Conference League league phase concludes on Thursday, promising a night packed with drama as 26 teams fight for something meaningful. Nine clubs will play their final European matches of the season, while Strasbourg has already secured a spot in the round of 16. Another seven teams have confirmed knockout round berths, with five more likely to join them, aiming to join Strasbourg in the last 16.

This leaves 14 teams battling for the remaining 11 knockout round spots. KuPS Kuopio, Zrinjski, and Breidablik currently sit on the outside looking in but could still celebrate by the night’s end.

Top Eight: The Race to Avoid Knockout Playoffs
Thirteen teams enter Thursday knowing they will feature in next year’s Conference League. For 12 of them, the key question is whether they can qualify directly for the round of 16 alongside Strasbourg.

Shakhtar Donetsk are in the strongest position, having won their last three games. A point against Rijeka will guarantee them a top-eight finish in their Conference League debut. Rakow, sitting third with 11 points, will travel to Cyprus to face Omonia Nicosia, needing at least a draw to likely secure a top-eight spot.

AEK Athens, Samsunspor, Sparta Praha, Rayo Vallecano, and Mainz each have 10 points and start the night in the top eight. The clash between Mainz and Samsunspor could prove decisive for direct qualification. Meanwhile, Crystal Palace, AEK Larnaca, Fiorentina, Celje, and AZ Alkmaar, each on nine points, will need wins to realistically break into the top eight.

Thirteen points will guarantee a round of 16 spot, while 12 points put teams in a strong position. Goal difference could ultimately decide the final places.

Knockout Round Spots: Historic Chances on the Line
The real intrigue involves 14 teams currently ranked 14th to 27th, all fighting to stay in the competition. Rijeka, Omonia, Lausanne-Sport, Noah, Jagiellonia Bialystok, and Drita each have eight points and are in relatively safe positions; a point in their final games—or favorable results elsewhere—will likely see them through.

The remaining eight clubs face a tougher challenge. Lech Poznan and Sigma Olomouc meet in a potentially decisive clash, while Shkendija, CS Universitatea Craiova, and Lincoln Red Imps also aim to secure one of the last top-24 spots. KuPS, Zrinjski (six points), and Breidablik (five points) must win to have a realistic chance, with draws possibly enough for the first two depending on other results.

As last season showed, seven points is the typical cut-off for knockout qualification, with goals scored often deciding the final tiebreakers. Teams on seven and eight points will be keen to avoid heartbreak.

Eliminated Teams
Nine clubs enter Thursday already out of contention, including former Cup Winners’ Cup champions Aberdeen, Slovan Bratislava, and Dynamo Kyiv. Legia Warsaw and Rapid Wien, quarter-finalists last season, are also eliminated, with Rapid yet to earn a point. Shamrock Rovers and Shelbourne from Ireland, Hacken of Sweden, and Malta’s Hamrun Spartans will also play no further part in the tournament this season.