Our NFL analysts have submitted their predictions for Week 15’s Thursday night matchup between the Atlanta Falcons (4-9) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6).

Tampa Bay enters the game as 4.5-point favourites, with the total set at 44.5.
It’s a divisional clash with both NFC South rivals suiting up in their throwback uniforms.

Before diving into the full breakdown, here’s how our experts are calling it:

Expert Picks
Paul (129-63-1): Buccaneers 28, Falcons 20

The NFC South remains wildly unpredictable, but Tampa Bay can’t afford to slip with the division still within reach.
Atlanta will be without Drake London, and their only win since mid-October was a 14-point victory over New Orleans.
Paul leans toward the Bucs making enough plays to get it done.
Pick: Tampa Bay

Eric (128-64-1): Buccaneers 23, Falcons 16

The Buccaneers haven’t resembled the strong team they appeared to be early in the season, going 2-5 over their last seven. Atlanta has been even worse at 1-6 in that stretch.
Neither team inspires confidence, but Eric expects Tampa to pull out an ugly, grind-it-out win in the creamsicles.
Pick: Tampa Bay

Miguel (121-71-1): Buccaneers 17, Falcons 13

This feels like a toss-up for Miguel, but Baker Mayfield’s ability to create late-game plays gives Tampa Bay a slight edge.
He still sees a path for Atlanta to steal it, so he’s projecting a tight contest.
Pick: Tampa Bay

Henri (112-81-1): Buccaneers 28, Falcons 20

Henri likes the Falcons’ potential but notes their lack of consistency on both sides of the ball.
Tampa Bay’s Mayfield-Egbuka connection has cooled off recently, yet the Bucs still appear to be the more complete team.
Pick: Tampa Bay

Game Breakdown

This matchup could be either a tough watch or a surprisingly entertaining divisional fight, depending on which version of these teams shows up.

Neither squad ranks inside the top 15 offensively, and while Atlanta still sits 14th in total defense, the unit has massively regressed after a strong start.

The Falcons will be without QB Michael Penix Jr. and top receiver Drake London, leaving Kirk Cousins and star RB Bijan Robinson responsible for shouldering most of the offensive burden.

Atlanta hasn’t scored more than 24 points in its last three games and hasn’t hit 30 in nine straight. Defensively, they’ve surrendered at least 27 points in four of their last five. Rookie edge rusher James Pearce Jr. has been one of the few bright spots.

Robinson continues to shine, leading the NFL with 1,683 scrimmage yards, but Cousins has struggled mightily. He’s 1-5 as a starter this season and is coming off a two-interception, zero-TD performance against Seattle.

Tampa Bay, meanwhile, has gone from possible Super Bowl contender to a team scrambling to stay afloat. They’ve been out-gained in five straight games since the bye—except for last week’s loss to the Saints.

The Bucs’ only recent win came against Arizona, a game they narrowly escaped thanks to turnovers. Mayfield has thrown four TDs and four INTs over the last four games after tossing only two picks through the first nine weeks.

Surprisingly, the run game has kept Tampa competitive, topping 120 rushing yards in four of the last five games, including a 202-yard outburst versus Buffalo.

Defensively, the Bucs rank 22nd overall but sit seventh in forced turnovers (19). They’ve generated at least one takeaway in four of their last five contests. Their ability to force mistakes may be the key to keeping playoff hopes alive.

Injury Report

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

Inactive: SirVocea Dennis (LB), Rashad Wisdom (S)

Questionable: Mike Evans (WR – LP), Jalen McMillan (WR – LP)

Doubtful: Cade Otton (TE – LP), Tykee Smith (LB – LP)

Atlanta Falcons:

Inactive: Drake London (WR)

Questionable: Kyle Pitts (TE – LP), Jalon Walker (EDGE – LP), Brandon Dorlus (DL – LP), David Onyemata (DL – LP)