Should Manchester City overcome West Ham on Saturday afternoon, they would move—at least temporarily—to the top of the Premier League table.

That scenario would heap pressure on Arsenal later in the day, with Mikel Arteta’s side knowing that victory away at Everton would be required if they are to reclaim top spot and head into Christmas as league leaders.

Christmas leaders no guarantee of success

If the Gunners do manage that feat, it would mark the third time in the last four seasons that they have topped the table at Christmas. Prior to that, they had achieved the same distinction only twice in the first 30 Premier League campaigns.

History, however, suggests that leading at Christmas offers no guarantees. On previous occasions when Arsenal have topped the table at this stage, they have gone on to finish third in 2007/08 and second in 2002/03, 2022/23 and 2023/24.

Arteta, who celebrates the sixth anniversary of his appointment on Saturday, may take encouragement from Arsenal’s recent record against Everton. The North London side are unbeaten in their last five meetings, winning three and drawing two.

The most recent two encounters have ended level, though, and there hasn’t been a run of three consecutive draws in this fixture since late 2012 through to December 2013.

Everton a difficult place for Arsenal

Despite that recent run, David Moyes could point to Everton’s previous dominance, having won four of the five meetings before Arsenal’s current unbeaten streak.

The Toffees can also draw confidence from Arsenal’s struggles on Merseyside in recent years. Since Arsène Wenger’s departure, the Gunners have managed just one win in seven away matches against Everton, drawing twice and losing four.

Everton may also take motivation from Arsenal’s underwhelming performance against Wolves, where two own goals were required for the Gunners to secure victory at the Emirates. Moyes is likely to use that display as fuel in his pre-match team talk.

That said, Everton will be wary of conceding first. In eight of the last 10 matches where they have gone behind, they have gone on to lose.

Toffees still evolving under Moyes

While Everton remain a work in progress, their league position tells a positive story. They sit ninth on 24 points—just two behind Crystal Palace in fifth and four adrift of Chelsea in the final Champions League spot.

However, their record against elite opposition this season is concerning. Everton have lost all five Premier League matches played against sides competing in this season’s Champions League.

Arsenal, meanwhile, may be troubled by a curious late-game trend. Forty percent of the goals they have conceded this season have come in the final 10 minutes— the highest proportion in the league.

That statistic is softened by the fact they have conceded just 10 goals overall, making them the second-best defensive side across Europe’s top five leagues, behind only Roma.

Squad issues for both sides

Team selection will be heavily influenced by injuries and Africa Cup of Nations absences.

For Arsenal, Ben White is sidelined with a new injury, while Gabriel Magalhães, Cristhian Mosquera and Kai Havertz are all still unavailable. Despite these setbacks, Arteta’s side have shown resilience in grinding out results—a trait that may be tested to the limit at the Hill Dickinson Stadium.

Everton will also be missing key figures. Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, who has impressed since arriving on Merseyside with four goals and two assists this season, is ruled out after picking up a knock against Chelsea.

Seamus Coleman, Merlin Röhl and Jarrad Branthwaite are all unavailable, while Jack Grealish is rated only a 50/50 chance to feature. Idrissa Gueye and Iliman Ndiaye are away on AFCON duty, further disrupting Moyes’ plans.

With both sides operating below full strength, margins could be fine. Ultimately, defeat would suit neither team—and even a draw, while extending Arsenal’s unbeaten run against Everton, may feel like a missed opportunity in the title race.