The Bahrain Grand Prix and Saudi Arabian Grand Prix are unlikely to be replaced on what would become a 22-race Formula 1 calendar if, as now appears increasingly probable, they are cancelled due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Multiple senior sources in the F1 paddock told Reuters on Friday that reducing the world championship from its scheduled 24 rounds was the most likely outcome.

Bahrain’s floodlit race at the Bahrain International Circuit in Sakhir, south of Manama, is currently scheduled for April 12, with the Saudi event at Jeddah Corniche Circuit set to follow a week later.

Other motorsport events in the region are also being affected. MotoGP is due to race at Lusail International Circuit near Doha on April 12, but organisers have said staging the race on that date looks extremely difficult and relocating the round is unlikely. Meanwhile, a round of the FIA World Endurance Championship scheduled in Doha from March 26 to 28 has already been postponed.

The uncertainty follows missile and drone attacks targeting cities including Manama, Riyadh and Doha after strikes on Iran by the United States and Israel. Major airports across the region — key hubs for international travel — remain closed, complicating logistics for teams and organisers.

Heat and logistics limit alternatives

Rescheduling the races later in the year at the same venues would be extremely difficult because temperatures in the region rise significantly during the European summer and autumn.

The championship calendar also leaves little room for additional races, with Formula 1 keen to maintain its traditional August break and avoid further strain on teams already dealing with a record-length season.

Several circuits have been suggested in media reports as potential replacements, including Autodromo Internazionale Enzo e Dino Ferrari in Imola, Circuit Paul Ricard at Le Castellet, Algarve International Circuit in Portimão and Istanbul Park in Turkey.

However, shifting the sport’s global logistics operation at short notice presents a major challenge. Promoters would also have little time to sell tickets or organise marshals, security and transport — all essential requirements for hosting a race.

Another idea floated was adding a second race at Suzuka Circuit in Japan after the third round of the season, but that option also presents complications. Track owners Honda would have limited incentive to highlight the struggles of their engine programme with Aston Martin F1 Team.

While Formula 1 held races behind closed doors and organised double-header events at certain circuits during the COVID-19 pandemic, those measures were taken to ensure a season could be completed under extraordinary circumstances.

Even with two races removed, a 22-event calendar would still satisfy commercial obligations and remain one of the longest seasons in the sport’s history, albeit with reduced overall revenues.

Strong ties to the sport

The Middle Eastern races are significant financial contributors to Formula 1. Bahrain and Saudi Arabia also maintain deeper connections with the sport, with Bahrain owning the McLaren team and Saudi Arabia acting as a major sponsor and investor.

When the Bahrain race was cancelled in 2011 due to unrest in the kingdom, it was not rescheduled after teams objected to a proposed late-October date.

At the time, the circuit chairman said the country would not pursue a replacement race “in the best interest of the sport.”

Decision still pending

Current Formula 1 chief executive Stefano Domenicali and Mohammed Ben Sulayem, president of the Fédération Internationale de l’Automobile (FIA), have both stressed that safety remains the priority.

“We don’t want to make any statement today because things are evolving and we still have time to make the right decision,” Domenicali told Sky Sports in Melbourne. “This decision will be taken together.”

Domenicali is expected to meet team representatives on Saturday during the opening race weekend in Australia.

Zak Brown, chief executive of McLaren, said teams had so far received limited communication about the situation due to the logistical challenge of transporting equipment to Australia.

“It’s the first get-together of all the teams,” Brown said. “There’s been very little communication about it yet because of the effort it took just to get here.”

Toto Wolff, team principal of Mercedes-AMG Petronas Formula One Team, added: “I would very much hope we race. Is it realistic that we race there at the moment? I’m not quite sure.”

Impact on support series

Deadlines are approaching for the sport’s support championships. Formula 2 is racing in Australia this weekend before its freight is due to be shipped to Bahrain for a test scheduled between March 25 and 27 at Sakhir.

Sources in the Formula 2 paddock said teams were still awaiting clarification but expected both the Bahrain test and the opening races in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia to be cancelled, with an announcement possibly coming over the weekend.

If those rounds are dropped without replacement, the championship’s second race would not take place until the iconic Monaco Grand Prix weekend in June.