The signs are encouraging for Mamelodi Sundowns FC as they prepare for Sunday’s CAF Champions League quarter-final second leg away to Stade Malien, carrying a strong 3-0 advantage from their dominant performance in Pretoria last weekend.

The South African side are heavy favourites to progress, with only a highly unlikely collapse in Bamako expected to stop them from reaching the next round.

First-leg advantage

Sundowns have never been eliminated from a two-legged CAF interclub tie after winning the first leg 3-0. In fact, they have consistently protected such commanding leads across knockout competitions, making their current position even more secure.

There has been one notable second-leg defeat in similar circumstances, however, in the 2016 CAF Champions League final against Zamalek SC. After winning 3-0 at home, they lost 1-0 away in Cairo but still secured the title on aggregate.

Rare slip-ups

Overall, Sundowns have taken a first-leg lead in 23 CAF Champions League knockout ties and gone on to win 21 of them.

The two exceptions came in 2015, when they defeated TP Mazembe 1-0 at home but lost 3-1 away in Lubumbashi, and in 2017, when they beat Wydad AC 1-0 at home before losing by the same scoreline away and eventually exiting on penalties.

Match record after first-leg wins

After recording 23 first-leg victories in CAF Champions League knockout ties, Mamelodi Sundowns FC have gone on to win 14 of the corresponding second-leg matches, drawing four and losing five.

On three occasions, they have lost the return leg but still progressed overall. The most notable example came in the 2016 final against Zamalek SC, where they lost the second leg but still lifted the trophy.

They also advanced in the 2001 semi-finals against Petro de Luanda, despite a 2-0 defeat in the second leg after winning by the same scoreline in the first match, progressing via penalties. In addition, they overcame Al Ahly SC in the 2018/19 quarter-finals, losing 1-0 in the second leg after a commanding 5-0 first-leg win.

Sundowns’ scoring consistency

Across 46 CAF Champions League knockout ties in which Sundowns won the first leg, they have scored in all but five second-leg matches.

This is a crucial statistic, especially with CAF still applying the away goals rule. A goal on Sunday would leave Stade Malien needing five goals to overturn the deficit.

The five occasions where Sundowns failed to score in the second leg were the 2001 defeat to Petro de Luanda, the 2016 final loss to Zamalek, the 2017 quarter-final defeat to Wydad AC, the 2018/19 loss to Al Ahly, and a 0-0 draw with Espérance de Tunis in last year’s quarter-finals, a result that still saw them progress 1-0 on aggregate.