It has been a tricky 24 hours for all crews competing in the 46th Rolex Middle Sea Race. All yachts are through the Messina Strait, with the last pair, Mowgli of Portsmouth and Sao Jorge, exiting at lunchtime today, day three. Only two yachts, however, have rounded Favignana at the northwest corner of the course. The wind remains light and patchy across the course, and even the front runners have endured their share struggles with the less than cooperative conditions. Black Jack 100, the line honours favourite, has a 50 nautical mile lead over Balthasar, but headway remains complex and painful. Black Jack’s ETA has been Tuesday morning for some hours, but the predicted time has been lengthening with every new position report. Fresh breeze is expected from the west, but the when, what, and how much is as uncertain as ever.

Light winds have been firmly on the menu for the past day, with intermittent bouts of progress across all classes. In IRC 1, Black Jack 100 finally reached Favignana at 2313 CEST on Sunday night, some five hours ahead of Balthasar. Wiggling her way south the jet black maxi was knocking along at a respectable 10 plus knots  – far better than this time last year  – and was abeam Pantelleria, on the western extremity of the course, at 0738 CEST. Then the glue set in and only 30nm have been clicked since. Balthasar, meanwhile, looked to be buried this morning as the leader stretched south. However, a sniff that routing west of the rhumb line towards the African coast, brought the Mills 72 into fresh breeze not yet available to the south. As we close this report, Balthasar is just passing Pantelleria and the wind appears to have reached Black Jack. Remon Vos’ crew will be relieved their hard work has not been undone by the capriciousness of the wind gods. Black Jack is currently scheduled to finish sometime after 0800 CEST on Tuesday morning. That may well change as conditions develop.

Further back, indeed a long way back, no other yacht has yet rounded the northwest corner of Sicily. Daguet 5, in IRC 2, has made a sterling effort, and early this afternoon looked on track to pass Favignana. Again, the wind has refused to favour anyone, the French yacht is still north of Levanzo, with Whisper and Django Deer bearing down on their position at close to 10 knots. The crew of Daguet 5 had been sailing out of their skins, successfully holding off the immediate competition, and even managing to extend. This may be about to change.

Arto Linnervuo, owner and skipper of the Infiniti 52 Tulikettu from Finland, in IRC 2, sent in this late afternoon report “It is important to just keep moving towards the corner. It is really hot and we are trying to jump from one patch of little breeze to the next one. It is extremely difficult to get around. Weight to leeward, then back up, and then back to leeward. It is constant work with the weight distribution. It is odd how you see patch of breeze that is suddenly not there anymore. Like on oasis in desert. The crew is focused on the job and motivated.”

The TP52 Arkas Blue Moon from Turkey also used a quiet moment to sum up their experience. “It has been a tricky race so far!” said Martin Watts. “We spent the first night dragging a bundle of rope, plastic bags, sticks, and even crustaceans wrapped tightly around the keel. It wasn’t safe to clear in the dark, so we waited until dawn and calmer water. Safak [Temur] did a brilliant job cutting it free.”

“We had a great exit from Messina and a solid run up to Stromboli. Last night, though, was challenging — very shifty and patchy. At times it was hard just to keep the boat moving, and we missed a couple of key shifts. Now we’ve just sailed into a light patch off the northwest corner of Sicily. My love–hate relationship with this race continues!”

North of Sicily, midway between Strombolicchio and Favignana, IRC 3 and 4 are in a clump. Nearly everyone is north of the rhumb line, with the French entry Soleag in extremis, closer to Ustica than Sicily. Hydra from the United States is mimicking the approach. It does not seem to have been a hugely successful tactic, with Hydra dropping off the provisional IRC 3 podium since leaving the orbit of Stromboli and replaced by the Maltese yacht Artie III. Aboat Time, the Bulgarian ClubSwan 42, continues to lead the class under IRC time correction, but in the mixed-wind mêlée overnight has been overhauled by the lower rated ClubSwan 42 BeWild from Italy, competing in IRC 4.

The leaders in IRC 5 and 6 have also taken advantage of the fleet compression since Stromboli. British yacht Zephyr, in IRC 6, continues to sail and exemplary course and is mixing it with the theoretically faster and more powerful yachts in the classes above. They too are trying the northern approach. Mon Ile and Elusive 2, in IRC 5, are contesting every puff, tooth and nail. The lead swinging between the boats, probably as often as the direction of the wind. Elusive looked to putting in a barn-storming performance earlier in the race. While they are undoubtedly dealing with what is in front of them with the expected tenacity and precision, Mon Ile has found her own way of piecing together the puzzle.

Calling in from the north of Sicily, just to the west of Alicudi, Seb Ripard on the Farr 30 Calypso had this to say: “It has been a slow, but beautiful 24 hours for Calypso. We’re the smallest boat in the fleet — just 30 feet — so patience is definitely part of the game. North of Sicily, the breeze has been light and fickle, and at times we’ve just had to coax every ounce of speed from the sails. It’s the kind of race where you need to keep your sense of humour and stay positive.”

“We’ve taken a slightly more inshore route, hoping to catch a bit of the sea breeze off Sicily, while others have stayed further offshore. Whether it pays off, we’ll see, but that’s part of the adventure. For us, it’s not just about results — it’s about being out here together, racing hard, and loving every mile of this incredible race.”

With only two boats round Favignana, almost the entire fleet is still edging west along the north coast of Sicily. The situation could hardly be more delicate. To the east of Italy, a steady northerly gradient breeze prevails; to the west of Sardinia, a strong southerly flow dominates. Between the two, the North Sicilian coast lies in a transition zone — the winds cancelling one another out, leaving the majority of the Rolex Middle Sea Race fleet trapped in a vast, unstable wind as a result. By the early hours of Tuesday, a south-westerly breeze should reach the yachts close to or round Favignana offering new hope.